If we are to judge by the enthusiasm and excitement of prospective carnival revellers, we could safely say that Jamaicans are fast adopting this kind of culture. The pre-carnival fetes are now more jammed than in previous years, and the bands are doing great business signing up masqueraders. Clearly, this kind of intense fun and frolic seems to be finding appeal here, especially among those who have leisure time and disposable incomes to match. More importantly, carnival has begun to take root in Jamaican culture, forcing many people ask: where is it all going to lead?

In broad terms, it is likely to take one of two directions. Either carnival will be refined over the years to resemble more closely that of Trinidad, which claims to be the mother of all carnivals in the region, or it will begin to define itself purely in Jamaican terms. Most carnival lovers, whose focus is on the enjoyment more than anything else, don't really care. But others who take a minute to give it some thought have very definite opinions on its direction.

Although carnival appears to capture something Jamaicans need, psychologist Peter Weller believes there must be a way to make sure that Festival is not lost entirely to this new competition. One reason carnival competes so effectively, is that large segments of society totally ignore Festival, which suffers from a generational and class bias evident in both participants and observers. There is now more attention to design and masquerade, more emphasis on spectacle and band organization. "Still," says psychologist Peter Weller, "we have to be able to enjoy it for what it is, while we hold onto what we have right here." That is not going to be easy, given the infectious nature of carnival. This year Soggae, a new group seeking to fuse soca and reggae and make carnival more affordable to everyone, has brought into the process many who had previously watched from the sidelines. Interestingly, the huge crowds at Soggae's mas camp on West Kings House Road look quite different from the folks who support Jamaica Carnival. By bringing carnival to the masses, Soggae may succeed in spreading the same kind of creative impulse that fuels the spectacle one finds in Trinidad's carnival.

Die-hard carnival masquerader John Chambers, an interior designer, believes the entrance of Soggae will make a difference to the carnival. "It will bring new ideas and new levels of creativity," says Chambers. "Most important, it now means more people can play mas. Not everyone can afford the $2,000 costumes of the traditional bands."

Soggae and other groups likely to emerge will take the carnival in directions we probably can't even envision today. But that is the nature of an organic phenomenon. Five years from now carnival may we vastly different from what it is today, or it may simply be a bigger and better version. "I want to see it include a broader cross section of the population and involve more music of a Jamaican character," says Anthony Barnes, Regional Divisional Director for International Business at Grace, Kennedy Ltd. Barnes, who has been a reveller in Trinidad's carnival since the mid 1970s, says already there is evidence that the music is beginning to blend.

For the carnival to grow, says Weller, Jamaicans here have to understand how multi-dimensional the Trinidad festival is. While Jamaicans certainly need that period of catharsis that carnival provides, many are not yet aware of its functionality for Trinidadians. Apart from the jump and wine element, carnival in Trinidad feeds the society at many different levels. It is renewal and transformation. It allows for creative use of materials and technology. One of Trinidad's most creative carnival designers, Peter Minshall, made the most wonderful head pieces with chicken wire, and captured an esoteric kind of dreadlocks using cloth and fiberglass in his portrayal this year of "Songs of the Earth."

Carnival is an economic boom time, too. There is a huge trade in liquor, beer, foodstuff, costume fabric and other material, steelband equipment, trucks and sound systems. Restaurants and clubs do a brisk business. Street vendors mushroom as the season gets into high gear.

It provides employment for many. Designers and craftsmen find work easily. So do seamstresses, metal workers, welders, wire benders and artists. People with organizational ability bring their skills to the large masquerade bands. It's the season for soca and the concert halls and calypso tents do good business. Humour and social commentary find room too, in what are called talkie-talkie tents. And the panmen compete vigorously for national supremacy.

People in Trinidad use carnival in all kinds of different ways. Some people play mas, others spend time in the pan yards. Still others flock to the calyso tents, while the party crowd moves from fete to fete. Others use carnival simply as an opportunity for reunion with friends and family. It's the one time of year Trinidadians abroad are sure to make time to come home.

"The sooner we become aware of the many ways to enjoy carnival, the faster we can choose a Jamaican way of responding to it," says Weller. He suggests linking Festival and carnival as a way of supporting the all-island celebrations that take place in the summer. Since that is also the season for NDTC and many theatre productions, Weller believes we can have a Festival season that begins in April and goes all the way to August. There are implications for tourism also, since this is the traditional slow season. Event tourism is a recent marketing pitch, and could well bring the kind of flow of visitors to Kingston that we only see on the north coast.